Migration Trends Shift as Labour Markets Soften Abroad

New Zealand's migration story is shifting as net migration remains below recent highs. However, fewer people are leaving and more Kiwis are returning home. The traditional destinations for New Zealanders, such as the UK and Australia, are becoming less attractive due to weaker labour markets and economic challenges.

The number of foreign citizen arrivals into New Zealand has increased by 0.1% year-over-year to 104,000, while departures have fallen by 7.5% to around 49,000. The flow of Kiwis is also changing, with the number of permanent arrivals increasing by 6.1% to just over 26,000 and departures falling by 2.7% to nearly 38,000.

The UK's Labour market has softened, contributing to a decline in interest among New Zealanders to move there. The number of visa entry clearances approved for New Zealanders into the UK has dropped to its lowest level outside of the pandemic in 20 years. The Australian economy is also facing challenges, with higher interest rates and a volatile housing market.

The trans-Tasman migration flow appears to have stabilised, with a net loss of 28,500 people from New Zealand to Australia over the 2025 calendar year. However, this is still down from previous years and lower than the peak net outflow of nearly 44,000 in 2012.