NAS100 Tests 31,000 as Weak Jobs Report Reduces Fed Hike Bets
The NAS100 index tested the 31,000 mark after a weaker-than-expected September nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, which reduced the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in October. The NFP report showed only 29,000 jobs were added, far below the expected 90,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. The probability of an October Fed hike dropped to 22.7%, down from 64.2% a week earlier.
The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.19% on Friday, closing at 27,190.86, with tech giants Nvidia and Tesla leading the rally. The NAS100 itself traded around 30,853.50, consolidating near its 9-period moving average. Traders are watching key levels, including resistance at 31,000 and support at 30,000, for further clues on market direction.
Analysts are divided on whether the weak jobs report signals a lasting shift or a temporary blip. Upcoming US inflation data and Fed commentary will be critical in shaping market expectations. A bullish scenario could unfold if softer inflation data keeps rate hike expectations subdued, while a bearish outlook may emerge if inflation remains hot or the Fed adopts a hawkish stance.
The NAS100's near-term bias is cautiously bullish, provided it holds above 30,000. A daily close above 31,000 would confirm a breakout, potentially drawing in momentum buyers. Conversely, a close below 30,000, especially with hot inflation data or hawkish Fed comments, could weaken the current structure and increase downside risk.