New Zealand Consumer Confidence Dips Amid Oil Price Uncertainty

The latest ANZ Roy-Morgan consumer confidence survey for August has revealed a slight decline in optimism among New Zealanders. The survey's reading of 98 is still 18 points higher than its April low, but it indicates that more people are pessimistic about the economy than optimistic.

Oil price uncertainty remains a concern for retailers, with the proportion of households thinking it's a good time to buy a major household item falling by 5 percentage points to -12. ANZ economists say that while the economy has recovered from the shock of higher oil prices in February, the unpredictable nature of these prices is still causing uncertainty.

On a more positive note, respondents are becoming more optimistic about their financial prospects, with a net 22% expecting to be better off this time next year. Expectations around house price inflation have also eased slightly, from 2.6% to 2.5%, while two-year-ahead inflation expectations remain steady at 4.7%.

The survey's five-year-ahead measure has seen a 1 percentage point increase, rising to +13%, its strongest reading since May 2021. Perceptions regarding the economic outlook over the next 12 months have also improved by 1 point, reaching -12%.