New Zealand’s inflation rate is expected to show a slight dip in the third quarter of 2026, but economists warn that the relief may be temporary. A weaker currency and rising oil prices are likely to push inflation higher in the final months of the year, according to a Bloomberg survey of 16 economists. The consumers price index is projected to rise 3.8% in the third quarter from a year earlier, down from 4.1% in the second quarter.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand had anticipated a slightly higher inflation rate in its early September monetary policy statement. The upcoming report on Thursday will provide clarity on whether the central bank’s projections were accurate or if further adjustments are needed. The data suggests that the bank may need to consider additional rate hikes to curb inflation.
The weaker currency and surging oil prices are key factors driving the anticipated inflation surge. These external pressures could complicate the Reserve Bank’s efforts to stabilize prices, potentially leading to more aggressive monetary policy actions in the near future.