New Zealand's long-standing trend of losing residents to Australia appears to be slowing down. The latest figures show a net loss of 27,900 people to Australia in the year to March, a decrease from 31,100 the previous year. Nick Brunsden, lead demographer at Infometrics, noted that while New Zealand has always been an 'exporter of people,' the numbers have been particularly high in recent years. The reduction in departures suggests a slight improvement, though the country still loses more people than it gains back.
Employment opportunities remain a key driver for those considering a move across the Tasman. Currently, Australia's unemployment rate is about one percentage point lower than New Zealand's, offering better job prospects. However, Brunsden expects this gap to narrow to just 0.5 percent within the next one to two years. As the economic conditions align more closely, fewer Kiwis may be inclined to leave, and some may even return.
Recent years have seen a notable exodus of under-fifteens and individuals in their early thirties, indicating that families with children are relocating to Australia. These groups are likely to be more settled in their new homes, making them less likely to return even as New Zealand's labor market improves. The cost of living has also played a role, with high inflation in New Zealand pushing more families to consider moving.
Australia's economic policies have contributed to the trend. The country's Reserve Bank has maintained higher interest rates to control inflation, placing Australia in a stronger economic position compared to New Zealand. As New Zealand begins to recover, Australia may enter a softer economic period, potentially working in New Zealand's favor.