New Zealand's next government will face significant challenges related to natural hazards, regardless of the election outcome. These hazards, including floods, earthquakes, and wildfires, pose substantial economic and social risks, exacerbated by climate change and ongoing development. The costs are already evident, with the 2023 Auckland anniversary weekend floods resulting in over NZ$2 billion in insured losses, not including broader impacts like infrastructure damage and health effects.
Despite advancements in hazard science and risk modeling, New Zealand continues to place people and infrastructure in high-risk areas. For example, fast-tracked development in South Auckland has proposed thousands of homes on flood-prone land, despite concerns raised by Auckland Council. The government has committed around NZ$1.25 billion to buy properties deemed at intolerable risk, highlighting the need for stronger policy settings to direct growth away from hazard-prone locations.
Experts emphasize that investing in resilience now can save significant costs later. Every dollar invested in resilience is estimated to save eight dollars in avoided losses. However, sustained funding for resilience efforts remains a challenge. The Climate Change Commission has warned that adaptation progress is not keeping pace with rising risks, underscoring the need for long-term decisions despite uncertainty.
The next government's choices will determine the levels of risk and liability New Zealanders live with, how well prepared communities are, and how effectively the country recovers from disasters. While these issues have not dominated the current election campaign, the decisions made could prove consequential for the next decade.