Nomura Sees Yuan Reaching 6.55 Against Dollar by End-October

Nomura analysts expect the Chinese Yuan to continue gaining strength against the US Dollar. As of Tuesday, the USD/CNY exchange rate traded near its lowest levels of 2026 at 6.77.

The bank attributes this decline to exporter US Dollar selling and a weaker daily fixing. Nomura maintains a short USD/CNH position with a three-out-of-five conviction level, targeting 6.55 by the end of October.

A key factor supporting the Yuan's appreciation is Chinese corporate currency flows. June data showed a net foreign-exchange trade settlement surplus of $81.8 billion, the largest since December 2025, which Nomura notes is equivalent to 92.9% of China's trade surplus after adjusting for renminbi settlement.