Nvidia Earnings and Jackson Hole to Test Stock Market Rally Assumptions

Nvidia's upcoming earnings report and the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium will test the assumptions behind this year's stock market rally. The AI-driven surge in equities is facing rising uncertainty over growth and interest rates, with global bond yields surging to their highest level since 2007.

The 30-year Treasury yield has reached its highest level since 2007, pressuring stocks and raising concerns about borrowing costs for households and companies investing heavily in AI infrastructure. The Treasury Department's efforts to calm markets by doubling buybacks for long-dated debt offered only brief relief, with yields rebounding on Thursday.

Nvidia's results could offer new insight into the demand underpinning the AI ecosystem, which has become a proxy for the broader market. 'The market is so reliant on the AI trade today, and Nvidia is obviously the big boy in the room,' said Erik Kratz, chief investment officer at Arena Private Wealth.

Investors will be looking to Jackson Hole for clues about the policy environment in which the expansion of AI infrastructure will take place. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first appearance at the event since taking office in May 2026 is expected to provide insight into his approach to monetary policy.