NZ Economists Anticipate Modest Lift in June Quarter GDP Growth

Economists at New Zealand's largest banks are anticipating marginally brighter economic growth in the June quarter, despite the Reserve Bank's (RBNZ) forecast of a flat result.

The RBNZ expects economic growth to be 0.5% in the September 2026 quarter and another 0.5% increase in the December quarter, but some banks are expecting a 'modest lift' of 0.2% in GDP activity over the June quarter.

This would be an upgrade from Westpac NZ's previous estimate of a GDP decline of 0.1%, with senior economist Michael Gordon saying that the New Zealand economy has done well in shaking off the effects of higher fuel prices and global uncertainty, thanks to still-low interest rates and ongoing strength in many export industries.

Kiwibank is forecasting just a 0.1% increase in the June quarter, while ANZ NZ shares this forecast. ASB is anticipating the highest level of GDP growth in the June quarter, forecasting a 0.3% increase.