OECD Lifts Global Growth Forecast to 2.9% Despite Energy Shock

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has increased its global growth forecast for 2026 to 2.9%, citing a stronger-than-expected economy. In its interim outlook, the OECD raised its 2026 growth projection by 0.1 percentage point from June.

The upgraded forecast is despite the energy supply shock triggered by the conflict in the Middle East, which had led to soaring oil prices since February. However, sizeable oil inventories and discretionary government support measures helped soften the blow.

Within the eurozone, Spain is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, ahead of other countries covered in its September update. Germany's forecast remains at 1.1%, Italy at 0.9%, and France at 0.4%. The eurozone as a whole is expected to grow by 1% each year.

The OECD warned that central banks have begun raising interest rates to contain inflation driven by high oil and gas prices, which has pushed diesel and other fuel costs to multi-year highs. Headline inflation in G20 countries is projected at 4.1% this year, while the OECD expects it to reach 3% in the eurozone.