OECD Slows Canada's Growth Forecast to 0.9% in 2026 Amid US Trade Uncertainty

The OECD has released its September Economic Outlook report, forecasting Canada's real GDP growth to slow to 0.9% in 2026, followed by a somewhat stronger 1.3% in 2027.

This year's Canadian economy is expected to be pulled in different directions, with investment tied to artificial intelligence and data centres providing some momentum, while new U.S. tariffs and broader uncertainty around North American trade are creating pressure.

The OECD points to U.S. trade policy as one reason for caution, citing new tariffs on Canadian exports as a 'headwind for certain industries', although the overall economic effect is expected to be limited by their relatively narrow scope.

In contrast, the U.S. economy is forecast to grow 2.2% this year and 2.1% next year, more than twice Canada's pace.