Oil Price Rise Weighs on New Zealand Business Confidence
New Zealand business confidence eased in September as a renewed rise in oil prices weighed on responses received later in the month, according to ANZ's monthly Business Outlook survey.
The survey showed that confidence slipped around 2 points to +52, while expected own activity was steady at +48 and reported past activity fell 5 points to +11. Inflation indicators were little changed, with inflation expectations for a year ahead holding at 3.25% and cost expectations rising 1 point to a net 82% of firms expecting higher costs.
The timing of responses matters, as most were received around September 1, but around a quarter came in after a reminder went out on September 22, when the Dubai spot oil price had risen from around $100 a barrel at the start of the month to a peak of around $128. Late-month responses showed a hit to all activity indicators except investment.
By sector, manufacturing was the standout, with confidence at +79 and employment intentions at +39, while retail employment intentions were negative at -11 and retail investment intentions were just +2. ANZ's monthly heatmap showed manufacturing and construction heating up, while retail, services, and agriculture cooled.