Oil Slips Below $100, but FX Markets Refuse to Follow the Script

The price of Brent oil broke below $100 after Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West Pipeline, which can reroute around 4 million barrels per day, roughly 4% of global supply, away from the Strait of Hormuz.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran could reopen the Strait within seven days if Washington eases military pressure and lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. This move is not driven by demand, but rather by improving supply conditions and diplomatic efforts.

The oil price drop has had a mixed impact on FX markets. While Brent broke through $100 support into the high-$90s, CAD is not broadly underperforming despite the decline in crude prices.

The divergence between AUD and NZD is also striking, with no clear catalyst for the move. The dollar remains broadly firm across major currencies, except versus Swiss Franc and Kiwi.