Poland Braces for Elevated Inflation Through 2026
Poland's inflation is expected to remain elevated in the second half of 2026 due to the withdrawal of fuel-market tax and regulatory measures, according to the Monetary Policy Council's 2027 guidelines. Average annual CPI inflation should decline in 2027 as global commodity markets normalize and cost pressures ease. This slowdown in inflation will be accompanied by a decrease in GDP growth in 2027, down from 3.6% in 2025.
The country's economy is expected to remain strong, supported by EU fund absorption and stronger investment, but this growth should slow in 2027 as investment momentum weakens. Unemployment is expected to remain low, while wage growth will moderate further. The key risks to Poland's economic outlook include high public-sector deficits and debt, Middle East tensions affecting oil and gas prices, the war in Ukraine, and weakness in the eurozone.