Christine Lagarde, the outgoing president of the European Central Bank, could match the support of centrist candidate Edouard Philippe in next year’s French presidential election, according to a new poll. The survey, commissioned by POLITICO, shows Lagarde would secure 14% of the vote if she ran, slightly ahead of Philippe’s 13.5%. Despite previously ruling out a candidacy, Lagarde’s early departure from the ECB in February 2027 has sparked speculation about her potential entry into the race.
The poll, conducted by Cluster17, also tested a scenario where Lagarde runs alongside Philippe and other candidates, including Olympic judo champion Teddy Riner and columnist Natasha Polony. In this case, Lagarde would still hold 8% support, indicating a fragmented centrist vote. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen and leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon are projected to finish first and second, respectively, qualifying for the runoff.
The centrist camp is currently divided between Philippe and Gabriel Attal, another former prime minister. Philippe, once seen as a strong contender, has struggled to gain momentum. Other candidates, such as conservative Bruno Retailleau and center-left MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, hope to challenge the rising odds of a Le Pen-Mélenchon runoff.
Lagarde has consistently dismissed the idea of running, stating at the Paris Peace Forum on Wednesday that she intends to reclaim her freedom to engage in non-monetary policy matters. She will step down from her ECB role on February 7, 2027, just before the deadline for presidential hopefuls to apply.