Prairie Economy Surges Ahead as Rest of Canada Struggles

The latest oil upswing is widening the economic gap between the Prairies and the rest of Canada, according to the Bank of Canada's second-quarter Business Outlook Survey.

Businesses in the Prairies reported much stronger expectations for future sales, investment, and hiring than firms elsewhere in Canada. The Prairie indicator for future sales stood at 38, compared with 9 in the rest of Canada. Investment intentions were 45 versus 26, while hiring intentions were 48 versus 21.

The regional divergence has intensified since the first quarter. Prairie investment intentions jumped from 5 to 45 and hiring intentions increased from 26 to 48. Outside the Prairies, future-sales expectations fell from 23 to 9, investment intentions declined from 35 to 26, and hiring intentions dropped from 40 to 21.

The survey also shows a major reversal in oil-producer plans for 2026. In December 2025, conventional oil producers expected capital spending to decline 6.5 per cent. By June, they expected spending to increase 4.9 per cent. Their production outlook moved from no growth to a 4 per cent increase.