Q4 Looms: Markets Await Key Data Releases Amid Interest Rate Uncertainty

The third quarter is coming to a close, and investors are bracing for a potentially pivotal fourth quarter. The US payrolls report and inflation data from both the US and euro zone will likely shape expectations for interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic.

Turbulent bond markets, fueled by concerns over Iran, fiscal worries, and AI-driven debt, have pushed global borrowing costs to their highest since 2007-08. Yet major world stock indexes remain just 2% off all-time highs, up over 12% for the year, largely thanks to AI euphoria.

The US midterm elections on November 3 will be a major event, with current polls suggesting Donald Trump's Republican party may lose the House of Representatives and potentially the Senate. This could create an interesting end to the year.