Rate Hike Odds Soar to 94.5% Ahead of September Federal Reserve Decision

The Federal Reserve's rate hike odds have risen to 94.5% as markets await the September decision, according to figures cited by Coin Bureau.

This shift follows persistent inflation and higher energy prices, with August core consumer prices increasing 0.3%, above economists' 0.2% expectation.

The rate outlook has shifted sharply in recent weeks, with a Reuters survey published earlier this month finding that a majority of economists still expected the Fed to hold rates through the remainder of 2026, but an increasing number anticipating at least one hike as inflation remained above the central bank's 2% target.

Coin Bureau also cited expectations across major Wall Street banks for a total of 50 basis points of tightening by year-end, implying additional policy tightening beyond the September decision.