RBA Decision Hinges on Statement Wording and Unanimous Vote

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make its policy decision on Tuesday, September 29. The cash rate target has been at 4.35% since August 12.

Thirty-day bank bill futures indicate a nearly 90% probability of a 25-basis-point hike to 4.60%, the highest level since November 2011.

The market's focus is no longer on whether there will be a rate increase, but rather how the statement revises its August wording and whether it signals an open option for the November meeting.