RBA Hike Seen as Risk Management Move, No Further Hikes Expected
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) September interest rate hike to 4.60% was seen by TD Securities Macro Research as a risk management move, rather than the start of a new tightening cycle. The team expects no further RBA hikes in 2026 and for policy to remain on hold through 2027.
According to the analysis, the RBA delivered a hike that did not explicitly signal a rapid follow-up increase in interest rates. This interpretation differs from the market's hawkish view of the Statement.
In fact, TD Securities Macro Research believes that if the RBA does not hike in November, it may be forced to reconsider hiking again at its February 2027 meeting. However, this is not their central view and is currently not a viable option for investors to position themselves around.