RBA Interest Rate Hike Set for September 29: What's Next?

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday, September 29, marking the fourth hike since 2026. The move would push borrowing costs to their highest level since November 2011.

Market consensus is near-unanimous, with a survey of 34 economists finding that only one expects rates to remain unchanged. All four major banks - Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, National Australia Bank, and ANZ - forecast a September rate increase.

CORE inflation persistence and growth resilience are driving the anticipated policy shift. In July, the trimmed-mean inflation rate remained at 3.6%, above the RBA's year-end forecast of around 3.3%. Both growth and employment have proven more resilient than expected.