RBA Set to Hike Cash Rate to 4.60% as Inflation Lingers

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to raise its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% on September 29, marking the fourth increase of 2026 and the highest level since November 2011.

The decision comes as trimmed mean inflation held at 3.6% in July, well above the RBA's end-year forecast of around 3.3%, while growth and employment have proved more resilient than expected.

CBA expects a unanimous decision accompanied by hawkish language, while Westpac expects a split vote reflecting differing views on supply capacity and labour market slack.

Most economists see 4.60% as the peak of the cycle, but CBA flags a follow-up hike if September-quarter trimmed mean inflation reaches 1% or more, and ANZ forecasts one in November.