RBA Study Reveals Varied Accuracy Among International GDP Forecasters
A study by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) compared the accuracy of GDP forecasts from various international organizations, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, European Commission, and Consensus Economics. The research paper, published in September 2026, examined forecast errors across economies from 1985 to 2025.
The study found that while there were no significant differences in accuracy among the forecasters for most economies, Consensus forecasts had lower errors than IMF forecasts in about three-quarters of economies at current- and one-year horizons. In contrast, IMF forecasts outperformed OECD forecasts in roughly three-quarters of economies at the one-year horizon.
The researchers also discovered that longer-range forecasting problems arise mainly from multiple forecasters missing the same economic turning points, rather than choosing the wrong institution. This suggests that the key issue is not which organization is used, but rather the underlying assumptions and data used in the forecasts.