RBA Warns AI Stock Drop Could Cut Australian Spending

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has warned that a significant drop in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks could have a noticeable impact on household spending in the country. According to a scenario analyzed on September 1, 2026, a permanent 20% decline in AI share prices could reduce long-term household consumption by 0.7%. If the decline extended to other equities, the reduction could widen to 2.4%.

AI stocks make up 5.4% of Australian household financial wealth. Direct shareholdings contribute 1.7 percentage points, while superannuation funds, Australia’s retirement savings system, account for 3.7 points. Nearly 90% of this exposure is in foreign markets. The RBA noted that the consumption estimates might overstate the effect, as households may be less responsive to changes in superannuation balances, which are monitored less frequently.

The analysis is a hypothetical scenario, not a forecast. In its October Financial Stability Review, the RBA cautioned that high expectations for AI-related growth and complex debt financing could make global markets vulnerable to a sharp repricing. Despite this, the central bank affirmed that Australia’s financial system remains resilient, though severe international market stress could tighten financing conditions and impact the domestic economy.