RBNZ Set to Raise OCR Again Amid Diverging Views on Future Hikes

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to raise its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points for the second consecutive time on Wednesday. The OCR hike, scheduled for release at 2pm alongside the bank's September Monetary Policy Statement, would take the cash rate to its highest in over a year.

Economists are largely united in their view that the OCR will increase, but some differ on the timing and extent of future hikes. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said the central bank was likely to keep its options open, while ASB senior economist Mark Smith described the decision as a straightforward one for the bank's Monetary Policy Committee.

BNZ went further than most, forecasting hikes at both the October and December meetings and a peak in the cash rate track of around 3.3% in the September quarter of 2027. Kiwibank, however, expressed caution, saying it expected the hike but did not believe it was warranted due to an uneven recovery.