Record Soybean Bearish Bets and Bullish Hogs Signal Market Shift

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report for 2026 shows large speculators holding an all-time bearish net positioning extreme in the soybean complex.

This rare, sector-wide move has been driven by expectations of a record US harvest of over 4.58 billion bushels, causing net short positions in soybean futures to surpass 180,000 contracts.

Derivative traders are advised to be cautious around this historic extreme and prepare for potential sudden price movements, but a downward price correction is considered more likely than a massive short squeeze.

In contrast, lean hogs have reached a bullish COT extreme with large speculators turning net long positions significantly. With hog futures trading at five-year lows near 70 cents per pound, this type of extreme bullish sentiment historically triggers a steady price recovery.

The British pound has also seen a strong bullish signal after commercial traders increased their net long positions by 29% in a single week, mirroring a similar setup from late last year that preceded a strong rally.