September Job Growth Forecast Slows Amid Ongoing Conflict and Tariffs

US job growth is expected to slow down in September, according to Reuters. The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics report, scheduled for release on Friday, forecasts a nonfarm payroll increase of 90,000 jobs last month. This follows an August surge of 162,000 new hires.

Economists surveyed by Reuters projected the job growth figure, with estimates ranging from 35,000 to 180,000. The August payroll number may be revised lower, according to Marc Giannoni, chief US economist at Barclays, who noted that the seasonally adjusted data exaggerated employment gains and would have shown a decline of 74,000 jobs if adjusted with previous seasonal factors.

The labor market remains stable, with historically low layoffs shielding workers from job losses. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, expects a reaffirmation of a 'low-hire, low-fire' American labor market, indicating that the economy is at full employment and not likely to shift the Federal Reserve's bias towards another rate hike this year.

The ongoing US-Israel war with Iran is expected to disrupt the labor market by the end of the year, with high energy prices and strained supply chains posing headwinds. Ongoing tariffs also remain a concern, as an Institute for Supply Management survey showed rising anxiety among manufacturers over the trade war with Canada.