September Jobs Report Clouded by Seasonal Factors
The upcoming US jobs report is set to be closely watched after a strong August print was largely attributed to seasonal factors, which may not repeat in September.
According to Goldman Sachs, initial jobless claims averaged 204K in the September payroll month, in line with August. The JOLTS layoff rate fell 0.1pp to 1.0%. Challenger announced layoffs, seasonally adjusted by Goldman, fell 2K to 52K.
The alternative measures of employment that Goldman tracks averaged +77K in September, up from +31K in August, though still below consensus.
However, Barclays warns that if August's strong print is revised down, it may indicate a stronger September report, while if it remains unchanged, September's report may be weaker. Wolfe Research shows how unusual this year's adjustment was, as seasonal factors normally depress August payrolls, but this year they boosted it.