Societe Generale strategists observe that the recent rebound in the USD/KRW pair has lost momentum around the 1390 mark and is now testing the lower boundary of its consolidation range. This movement suggests that the broader downtrend in the South Korean Won against the US Dollar may be set to resume.
The strategists note that if a brief rebound occurs, the pair could encounter resistance at the earlier highs of 1367/1372. Failure to surpass these levels may lead to further declines, with downside objectives identified at 1318 and 1303/1297.
Separately, the KRW recently rallied to 1333, marking its strongest level against the USD in two years. This strength was driven by a broad retreat in the US Dollar, a pullback in oil prices, and corporate dollar sales.
Despite the recent strength, the strategists caution that the pair's inability to clear key resistance levels could result in a continuation of the decline, potentially pushing the USD/KRW towards the projected downside targets.