Soft Landing Ahead? US NFP Expected to Moderate
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release its September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday at 12:30 GMT, which could have a significant impact on market expectations for an interest rate hike in October.
Investors are expecting a softer print of 90K NFP following August's strong 162K increase. The Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.1%, while the monthly wage inflation, as measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), is projected to remain at 0.3%.
TD Securities has a more pessimistic outlook, predicting NFP to moderate to 50K, with the Unemployment Rate rising to 4.2%. The bank attributes this slowdown to a reversal in seasonal factors and notes that private payrolls will likely be led by healthcare and leisure & hospitality, while government hiring is expected to remain flat.
The outcome of the NFP report could influence market expectations for an interest rate hike in October and affect the value of the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR).