Soybean Complex Hits All-Time Bearish Extreme in COT Report

The soybean complex has reached an all-time bearish extreme in its Commitments of Traders (COT) report, sparking questions about whether prices will follow. Large Speculators have pushed their net short positioning to unprecedented levels in soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal futures and options combined.

This is the first time such a significant bearish positioning has been recorded in this complex since 1995. However, according to ICOT scores, commercial producers appear to have built their short positions gradually and with more preparation than was the case in 2020, when prices rallied despite an all-time bearish extreme.

The situation is nuanced, as a decline might look like a short-lived correction rather than a sustained downtrend. Lean hogs, on the other hand, are at a bullish COT extreme, and sterling and the New Zealand dollar recorded larger-than-average weekly positioning changes in Commercials.