Standard Chartered Sees Higher Cash Rate for Australia Amid Inflation Risks

Standard Chartered's Nicholas Chia now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise the cash rate to 4.60% at its 29 September meeting, a revision from his previous call for a hold.

This change in expectation comes after recent RBA messaging highlighted upside inflation risks and resilient economic momentum.

The RBA had previously been expected to keep the cash rate on hold through the remainder of 2026, but Chia believes that the current policy stance is modestly restrictive.

While Chia does not rule out further RBA hikes in Q4, he notes that this would likely be conditional on an upside surprise in the Q3 CPI print and continued resilience in growth and spending.