Sterling Tumbles Amid Reassessed Rate Hike Bets and Slumping Oil Prices
UK's sterling currency remains under pressure as traders reassess bets on Bank of England rate hikes. The decline in oil prices, partly due to US President Trump leaving the door open for diplomacy with Iran, has reduced fears of an imminent supply shock.
Brent crude eased towards $100 a barrel, and stronger regional crude flows have further alleviated pressure on physical markets. As a result, UK policymakers' focus remains on oil and gas prices, which will heavily influence their inflation and interest rate outlook in the coming months.
The market currently assigns an 80% chance of a rate hike at the November meeting and a roughly 56% probability of a second increase by year-end. Meanwhile, investors are shifting attention to next month's Autumn Budget, where the government may consider extending a new property tax to homes worth over £1.5 million.
The USD remains supported by expectations of further interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, adding to sterling's downward pressure.