Swiss companies are preparing for only modest wage increases in 2027, according to the latest UBS Wage Survey. The study, which covered nearly 400 firms, reveals that average pay hikes will be just 1% next year, down slightly from 1.1% in 2026. With UBS forecasting inflation at 0.8%, this would result in real wage growth of only 0.2%, well below the long-term average and the 0.4% increase in purchasing power seen this year.
The survey highlights that while business confidence has improved across all sectors, particularly in industry, the labor market outlook remains subdued. Most companies expect unemployment rates to stay unchanged and staff numbers to stagnate. UBS economist Meret Mügeli attributes this cautious wage growth to low inflation expectations and companies' careful approach to hiring.
The highest wage increases are expected in the energy supply and water and waste management sectors, at 1.5%. The chemicals and pharmaceuticals sectors, along with the metals industry, plan a 1.2% rise. At the lower end, the retail sector anticipates a 0.8% increase, while the watch and jewellery sector expects 0.7%. Most other sectors are planning a 1% rise.
UBS also predicts economic growth of 1.5% for 2027, adjusted for sporting events. The bank expects the Swiss National Bank to raise the key interest rate to 0.25% in March and to 0.5% in June.