Trade Tensions Top Threat to Canadian Economy: Bank of Canada Survey

A survey of financial experts by the Bank of Canada found that rising trade tensions are the top threat to economic growth in Canada. The Q2 Market Participants Survey polled 26 participants from June 11-18 and found that nearly all respondents (96%) listed increasing trade tensions among their top three downside risks.

Trade tensions were followed closely by tightening global financial conditions (65%), and rising geopolitical risks (42%). On the upside, easing of trade tensions was seen as a significant growth driver by 92% of participants, with 58% pointing to larger-than-expected fiscal stimulus.

The survey's GDP forecast is also worth noting. The median real gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate for 2026 came in at 1.3%, down from the previous May survey's estimate, but expected to recover to 1.9% by end-2027.