Treasury Yields Seen as Oversold Ahead of Key Jobs Report

The 10-year Treasury Note has become oversold after a recent 25-basis-point move, which is a relatively small change compared to the fed funds rate in early 2022 that rose from 0% to over 5% by 2024.

The September nonfarm payroll report is expected to show around 90,000 to 100,000 net new jobs created, following last week's global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) expectations being revised upward.

Despite the upcoming jobs number being significant, the recent decline in August core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate to +0.2% did not have a positive impact on Treasury yields, indicating that inflation relief has yet to benefit bonds.