The United States is heading into a pivotal midterm election on Tuesday, with President Donald Trump facing significant backlash from voters. The Republican Party, now deeply intertwined with Trump's leadership, is experiencing a decline in support across various economic and foreign policy fronts. Polls suggest Trump's approval ratings are at an all-time low for a sitting president, with only 67 percent of his 2024 supporters still approving of him. The immediate issue driving voter dissatisfaction is inflation, particularly rising petrol prices, which have squeezed the suburban middle class.
The economic landscape is characterized by a K-shaped recovery, where the wealthy benefit from stock market gains and tax advantages, while the rest of the population struggles with stagnant wages and higher living costs. The median house price dropped to $419,250 in September 2026, marking 11 consecutive months of declines. Meanwhile, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index has surged 131 percent over the past four years, exacerbating wealth disparities. Trump's policies, including tariffs and his war in Iran, have contributed to these economic challenges, further alienating his once-loyal supporters.
The Federal Reserve, under Trump-appointed chair Kevin Warsh, has raised interest rates to 7.3 percent, up from 6 percent this time last year, which has negatively impacted mortgage rates and disposable income. Rising electricity prices, linked to AI data centers, have also fueled public discontent. Despite some successes in immigration policy, economic worries dominate voter concerns, with over a third of Americans citing financial issues as their top problem. If Trump loses both the Senate and the House, a fierce battle for the future of the Republican Party is expected, pitting MAGA supporters against more moderate factions.
The Democratic Party, though in disarray, holds a 9-point edge over the Republicans among likely voters, with 53 percent leaning towards the Democrats. This shift underscores the extent of Trump's declining influence. The upcoming election could reshape US politics, potentially leading to deeper divisions within the Republican Party and setting the stage for a contentious presidential race.