Trump’s Pressure Unintentionally Strengthens Carney’s Political Power

President Donald Trump’s aggressive stance against Canada inadvertently boosted Prime Minister Mark Carney’s political fortunes. At the end of 2024, the Liberals were trailing the Conservatives by 29 percentage points, with Justin Trudeau’s approval rating at a dismal 22%. However, Trump’s threats of 25% tariffs on Canadian imports and his suggestion of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state shifted the political narrative. By March 2025, Carney won the Liberal leadership contest with 85.9% support and quickly turned around the party’s fortunes.

The polling reversal was dramatic. By March 17, the Liberals led the Conservatives by five points, a stark contrast to the 29-point deficit just months earlier. Carney’s advantage over his Conservative counterpart Pierre Poilievre was even more pronounced when it came to handling the tariff war and standing up to Trump. This political shift culminated in the April 28, 2025 election, where Carney’s Liberals won 169 seats, just three short of a majority.

Carney’s government used the confrontation with Trump to justify significant policy changes. The One Canadian Economy Act removed federal barriers to internal trade and labor mobility, while defense spending increased to meet NATO’s 2% of GDP benchmark by March 2026. By April 2026, Carney’s government secured a majority in the House of Commons, further solidifying his position. Despite the political gains, the economic costs of the U.S. tariffs remained high, with Canada’s exports to the U.S. still at 71.7% in 2025.

The irony is that Trump’s pressure, intended to extract concessions, instead strengthened Carney’s mandate. Continued clashes with the U.S. helped Carney maintain high approval ratings, reaching 62% by September 2026. While the political benefits were clear, the economic vulnerability persisted, as Canada’s dependence on the U.S. market remained a significant challenge.