Trump's Trade War Strategy Faces Reality Check in U.S.-Canada Conflict

The collapse of U.S.-Canada trade talks has led to punitive tariffs going into effect. Canada will retaliate with its own tariffs, sparking a trade war between the two nations.

President Trump's approach to this conflict is centered on his belief that size matters: he thinks the U.S.'s larger economy and greater military strength mean Canada must eventually surrender. However, history suggests that wars are also decided by who can endure more pain, not just inflict it.

CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER Mark Carney enjoys broad public support, with a 60% approval rating, while Trump's job approval is at a low 33%. The Canadian economy has indeed suffered due to the trade tensions, but it has also benefited from increased oil and gas prices, thanks to the Iran war and inflation.

By contrast, the U.S. government faces significant economic challenges, including $40 trillion in debt and mortgages as high as 6.7%. The typical American household is losing around $1,100 per year due to Trump's tariffs, with the price of aluminum being a notable example: while Europeans and Japanese pay $3,000 per ton, Americans pay almost $5,000.

As the trade war drags on, it may have significant implications for U.S. politics, particularly in key states such as Michigan and Ohio, which could impact control of the Senate.