TSX Futures Hold Steady as Rate Hike Odds Decline

TSX futures were nearly unchanged on Monday morning, following a rise in the benchmark index during the previous session. The shift came after a softer-than-expected U.S. jobs report reduced the likelihood of an imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

Traders now see only a 20% chance of the Fed raising rates at its upcoming meeting, a significant drop from the 71% odds observed just a week earlier, according to CME's FedWatch tool. While the odds of an October rate hike by the Bank of Canada have also receded, investors still anticipate at least one rate increase before the end of 2026.

Gold prices climbed on Monday, providing some support to the commodity-heavy Canadian market. Oil prices remained steady, though elevated energy costs continue to fuel inflation concerns and push up borrowing costs. Despite these worries, higher crude prices have boosted the energy sector, making it the best-performing TSX sector this year and contributing to a nearly 12% gain in the blue-chip index for 2026.

In company news, Suncor Energy announced a deal to sell three offshore oil assets to London-based Ithaca Energy for C$1.2 billion in upfront cash. Meanwhile, Cenovus Energy revealed plans to acquire Athabasca Oil in a cash-and-stock transaction valued at an implied enterprise value of C$5.7 billion.