As the U.S. midterm elections approach, the impact on Canada-U.S. trade relations remains a critical question. Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Donald Trump have been attempting to shape the narrative in the final days of tightly contested races, which will influence the balance of power in Washington and, consequently, relations between the two nations. Talks between Ottawa and Washington collapsed in August, leading to retaliatory tariffs on billions of dollars worth of goods. The White House's recent imposition of tariffs, despite widespread disapproval, has become a contentious issue in the elections.
A poll by the Cato Institute found that 75% of registered voters consider tariffs important for their vote, while a Fox News poll revealed that 64% believe tariffs hurt the U.S. economy. Despite this, the Trump administration has continued to enforce tariffs, potentially costing his party in the midterms. Even traditionally conservative states, such as Kansas, are now in play for Democrats, prompting the White House to rescind some tariffs.
Prime Minister Carney recently stated that the Trump administration is 'coming closer to our position,' suggesting a shift in leverage. However, with voters poised to potentially oust Trump's party from power, the advantage may now lie with Ottawa. Democrats have vowed to rescind all Trump tariffs and trade authorities within the first 100 hours of taking office, but achieving this would require a veto-proof majority in Congress.
The Constitution grants primary commercial and tariff authority to Congress, not the executive branch. Democrats would need a two-thirds majority in both chambers to override a presidential veto, a challenging task even if they regain control of Congress. Without absolute control, Democrats would struggle to undo presidential trade authority or delay the White House's legislative agenda.