UBS Sees USD/JPY at 158 in 2027, Contrasts with JPMorgan's Steady 164
UBS and JPMorgan have released their forecasts for the USD/JPY exchange rate, with both banks predicting a stronger US dollar against the Japanese yen in the coming years. According to UBS's latest outlook, published on September 29th, the Dollar-Yen rate is expected to rise to 160 by December 2026 and then retreat to 158 at the March, June, and September quarter-ends of 2027. In contrast, JPMorgan's older forecast projects a steady rate of 164 across all four dates.
The current exchange rate for USD/JPY is 157.93, which is up 0.23% from Thursday's trading session after falling 1.37% in September. UBS's year-end target of 160 is roughly 1.3% above the current level, while JPMorgan's projection of 164 represents a more significant increase of around 3.8%. The banks' differing forecasts come as UBS identifies persistent obstacles to currency gains against the dollar, including elevated oil prices and high US yields.
In its broader Asia outlook, UBS notes that intervention remains a complication for forecasts of renewed yen weakness following the late-September rebound. Goldman Sachs previously distinguished between official support and the changes needed to sustain a recovery, suggesting that policy measures convincing Japanese investors to shift back towards Japanese assets could help reverse the yen's low valuation.