US Jobs Market: A Complex Web of Data Points

The US jobs market is a complex and multifaceted beast, and investors often struggle to make sense of the various data points that come out each week. Initial jobless claims are released weekly and provide insight into layoffs, while continuing claims offer clues about how difficult it is for unemployed workers to find new jobs.

The ADP employment report provides another layer of information, estimating changes in private-sector employment using anonymized payroll records covering over 26 million US employees. Crucially, the ADP report is not intended to forecast the BLS nonfarm payroll report and should be viewed as a separate data point.

JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) looks inside the machinery of the jobs market, providing measures of employer demand, actual hires, and worker confidence. The survey can help investors understand whether companies are hiring or laying off workers and how this might impact the overall economy.