US Jobs Report Weaks on All Fronts: Fed Pause in October Looks More Likely

The US jobs report for September showed weaker-than-expected growth in all key metrics. Non-farm payrolls rose by just 29,000, falling short of the consensus estimate of 90,000 and revised down from previous estimates. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%, driven by a partial recovery in the participation rate.

The wage growth rate remained steady at 3% year-over-year, suggesting no inflation threat emanating from the jobs market. This is consistent with comments from Federal Reserve officials, including John Williams and Philip Jefferson, who suggest that there may be no urgency to hike rates.

Manufacturing was a bright spot in the report, with its fourth consecutive monthly rise and 72,000 new jobs added since January. However, services were weaker, with declines in information, financial, professional business services, and government sectors.