US NFP Data Surprises to the Downside, USD Dips
The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for September surprised to the downside, disappointing analysts' expectations. According to XTB, the NFP rose just 29,000 in September, significantly lower than the forecasted 84,000. The unemployment rate also increased to 4.2%, surpassing the predicted 4.1%.
The private sector added only 46,000 jobs, while government employment fell by 17,000. Wage growth slowed down to 0.13% month-over-month (MoM) and 3.02% year-over-year (YoY), a decline from previous months. The August payrolls were revised downward to 133,000 from the initially reported 162,000, and July's numbers were also revised down to -10,000.
The US dollar index (USDIDX) experienced a significant dip following the report. Kalshi now prices an 85% chance of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates steady in October, given the underwhelming NFP numbers.