US Nonfarm Payrolls Projected to Rise by 65,000 in August

The upcoming August 2026 nonfarm payroll employment numbers are expected to show a significant increase. According to FactSet Insight, the median estimate for total nonfarm payroll employment is 65,000, which would be an improvement over the previous month's decrease of 23,000.

This projected rise would also surpass the trailing 12-month average of 26,300 and mark the sixth time in the past year that actual numbers have exceeded median estimates. However, it's worth noting that July's total nonfarm payroll employment fell short of expectations by a wide margin, with a decrease of 23,000 compared to the estimated increase of 92,500.

The unemployment rate for August is also expected to rise, with a median estimate of 4.2%, which would be above the previous month's rate but below the trailing 12-month average of 4.3%. This would mark the fifth time in the past year that actual numbers have exceeded median estimates.