US Treasury Yield Retreats from 24-Year High Amid Weakening Economic Data

The US 10-year Treasury yield fell on Wednesday for the first time in three sessions, retreating from its highest level in 24 years. The decline was due to weak US economic data, which eased pressure on the Federal Reserve and triggered a sharp shift in expectations for an interest rate hike in October.

The data showed US consumer confidence falling to its lowest level since 2014 as concerns over rising prices and employment intensified. Job openings also fell to 7.08 million at the end of August, below market expectations of around 7.23 million.

As a result, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged at its October meeting rose from 30% to 53%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike fell from 70% to 47%. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note also remains on track for its biggest monthly gain since 2024, up around 10% during September.