USD/JPY Death Cross Brewing: Could Trump Welcome Strengthening Yen?

The USD/JPY exchange rate is on the verge of forming a 'death cross,' which could signal that its long-term uptrend has reversed. Several technical indicators suggest that the upward momentum of the pair has faded, with the initiative shifting to the yen.

According to Ali Walder, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, 'every major bear market starts with a death cross.' However, he notes that not every death cross triggers a sharp decline. The last time a death cross occurred in this currency pair was on March 25, 2025.

Last Friday's decline marked the largest single-day drop of the USD against the yen in three weeks, and it occurred at a key technical level. When the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) weakens and the yen strengthens, the USD/JPY exchange rate tends to decline. The pair failed to regain its footing above the 200-day moving average, which has led many chart traders to expect a downside test of the 152 support level.