The upcoming week promises to be eventful for Wall Street, with a mix of earnings reports, key economic data releases, and the Federal Reserve's October meeting. The central bank is expected to announce its latest policy decision on Wednesday afternoon, though the focus will likely shift to the outlook for December's meeting.
According to CME Group FedWatch, there's an 88% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this time, a significant shift from the 29% probability observed just one month ago. However, BofA Securities economist Aditya Bhave argues that there's still a case for an October rate hike, citing worsening inflation trends.
The week's economic calendar includes several noteworthy reports. On Tuesday, investors will get data on durable goods, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, consumer confidence, and new home sales. Wednesday features the trade balance and wholesale inventories reports, followed by the Fed's policy statement and press conference with Chair Kevin Warsh.
Thursday brings the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation measure, along with GDP data, personal income and spending figures, and weekly jobless claims. The week concludes with the Employment Cost Index and Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index on Friday.