Warsh's Fed Set to Hike Rates as Markets Focus on Dot Plot

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points today, marking the first hike since July 2023 and pushing the target range to 3.75%-4.00%.

Interest rate futures were pricing close to a 90% probability of the move, up from roughly 70% before the latest inflation data, according to .

The dot plot, an anonymous projection of where rates are headed, is now the primary lens through which markets will read the Fed's intentions.

Chair Kevin Warsh has deliberately avoided forward guidance since taking the chair, making the dot plot and his press conference key variables in the market's analysis.